Rain For Many At Least 3 or 4 Days BE AWARE 6/16/19. With J7409. watch
Northern VA, MD, southern PA and DE/NJ
A low amplitude shortwave trough will emanate out of the OH Valley and travel quickly toward the area, providing an increase in mean winds and shear along a weak front. Cool temperatures aloft and 35-40 kt deep layer shear will favor cellular activity capable of hail, along with localized strong wind gusts. While hodographs will be straight, deviant storm motions along with 30 kt southwesterly 850 mb winds may provide up to 200 m2/s2 effective SRH, with a supercell possible.
A belt of 40 kt midlevel southwesterlies will extend from northern TX across the OH Valley and across New England, with various small ripples/disturbances embedded in the flow. One small shortwave trough related to ongoing convection will affect OK and TX, with a moist and very unstable air mass south of an outflow boundary supporting scattered severe storms mainly over TX. A moist air mass with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will extend northeastward across the OH Valley and toward the Mid Atlantic, south of an elongated stationary front and parallel to the stronger flow aloft.
The southern edge of the Westerlies runs roughly from the Pacific
Northwest eastward to the Mid-Atlantic through Tuesday. Moisture moving
northward out of the Gulf of Mexico will pool along this southern edge of
the Westerlies from Sunday into Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will
develop from parts of the Ohio Valley southwestward to the Southern Plains
and then southward to the Western Gulf Coast on Sunday. In addition, the
showers and thunderstorms will expand eastward into the Mid-Atlantic by
Sunday afternoon. From Sunday into Tuesday the showers and thunderstorms
will develop from parts of the Mid-Atlantic roughly southwestward to the
Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley. Rain will develop over parts of
the Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast that will move off the Northeast Coast
by Monday afternoon.
Meanwhile, a quasi-stationary front extending from the Ohio Valley/Upper
Great Lakes northwestward to the Northern High Plains through Tuesday.
Rain with daytime thunderstorms will develop over the area from Sunday
into Tuesday. Additionally, diurnal heating and moisture will aid in
producing showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Northern/Central
Rockies into parts of the Great Basin and parts of the Nevada Sierra on
Sunday into Tuesday. Furthermore, tropical moisture and upper-level
energy will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms over Florida and
the Eastern Gulf Coast through Tuesday.
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